After a year of dragging down GDP, homebuilders are showing strength just when the economy may need it most. 在拖累國內生產總值(GDP)一年之後，房屋建築商正在展現出實力，而此時經濟可能最需要它。
By Conor Sen (Bloomberg Opinion) —
翻譯：Notion AI
Ready for a little good news? As investors take stock of the fallout from the Silicon Valley Bank failure and wonder about broader fallout for the economy in the coming months, the housing market has delivered some reason for optimism. The yearlong drag from the housing market slump is winding down. And while we probably won’t see housing suddenly rocket higher like it did in the middle of 2020, a stabilizing market will help counter any weakness stemming from regional banks.
準備好聽一些好消息了嗎？當投資者估計矽谷銀行失敗的影響並擔心未來幾個月經濟的廣泛影響時，房地產市場卻給人們帶來了一些樂觀的理由。長達一年的房地產市場低迷期正在結束。雖然我們可能不會看到房價像2020年中期那樣突然飆升，但市場的穩定將有助於抵消地區銀行可能帶來的任何弱點。
The housing effect began pretty quickly after 30-year mortgage rates first hit 5% last April. Single-family housing starts, which had been running at greater than a 1.1 million unit annualized pace since the fourth quarter of 2020, fell immediately as homebuilders pulled back and assessed the situation. By July the single-family housing start pace had slowed to 900,000 units, and by November just over 800,000.
在去年四月30年期抵押貸款利率首次達到5%後不久，住房市場就開始受到影響。單戶住宅開工率自去年第四季度以來一直保持在每年超過110萬套的速度，但隨著房屋建築商的回落和評估情況，這一速度立刻就下降了。到了七月份，單戶住宅開工速度已經降至90萬套左右，到了十一月份，只剩下80萬套。
The sudden dire outlook was captured by the industry’s monthly sentiment index, which collapsed from 77 in April to 31 in December (with 50 representing a neutral reading) — on par with the worst sentiment seen at the onset of the pandemic in 2020.
行業月度情緒指數捕捉到了突然的悲觀前景，該指數從4月份的77下降到了12月份的31（50代表中性讀數），與2020年疫情開始時看到的最糟糕情緒持平。
That decline in construction activity was a significant headwind to US gross domestic product in the last three quarters of 2022, detracting around 1.2% each quarter. Real GDP growth averaged 1.8% in that period; if not for housing it would have come in at 3%. The concern was that with mortgage rates remaining over 6% heading into 2023, weakness in housing would drag down an economy already slowing from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases, tipping it into recession.
建築活動的下降是2022年最後三個季度對美國國內生產總值的重大阻礙，每個季度會減少約1.2％。在該期間，實際國內生產總值增長平均為1.8％；如果不是因為房屋問題，增長率將達到3％。令人擔憂的是，隨著抵押貸款利率在2023年繼續保持在6％以上，住房市場的疲軟將拖累本已因美聯儲加息而放緩的經濟，將其推入衰退。
But rather than conditions worsening in the first quarter of 2023, they got better. Homebuilder sentiment has improved for three consecutive months. While it’s not quite back to a neutral level of 50, fears of another backslide have abated. Instead of builders sitting on a glut of unsold homes that they had begun building during the pandemic, last week’s housing data showed that the number of single-family homes under construction has fallen to the lowest level since October 2021.
但是，與其在2023年第一季度惡化，情況反而變得更好了。房屋建造商的情緒連續三個月得到改善。雖然還沒有完全回到中性水平50，但對於另一次滑坡的擔憂已經減輕了。建造商不再面臨著一大堆在疫情期間開始建造的未售出的房屋，上週的房屋數據顯示，正在建造的單戶住宅數量已經降至2021年10月以來的最低水平。
And after bottoming in November, single-family housing starts have picked up a bit — not the surge we saw in mid-2020, but another sign that builders feel like they are in a position to continue building in the current market rather than pulling back even more.
在11月份觸底之後，單戶住宅開工有所增加——雖然不像2020年中期那樣激增，但另一個跡象表明建築商認為他們有能力在當前市場繼續建設，而不是更進一步地撤退。
One of the largest homebuilders in the US, Lennar Corp., noted in its earnings call last week that its February cancellation rate “was 14%, much below our normalized cancellation rate.” They also said that base prices have stabilized in all of the markets they operate in.
美國最大的房屋建築商之一 Lennar Corp. 在上周的盈利電話會議中指出，其二月份的取消率“為14%，遠低於我們的正常取消率。”他們還表示在他們經營的所有市場中，基礎價格已穩定。
The housing market shift from contraction to stabilization is an important dynamic as investors sort out problems with regional banks and watch for wider ramifications. In its weekly housing market update last week, the housing website Redfin noted that as mortgage rates fell in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse, Redfin’s mortgage-lending company locked a rate on more loans on Friday, March 10, than it had on any other day in 2023. So when it comes to housing at least, the failure of SVB might turn out to be a net positive — at least outside of the San Francisco Bay Area. Homebuilder stocks are up since the SVB collapse, suggesting investors aren’t yet concerned about spillovers negatively affecting the market for new home sales.
住房市場從緊縮轉向穩定是一個重要的動態，投資者解決地區銀行問題並關注更廣泛的影響。在其上週的住房市場更新中，住房網站Redfin指出，隨著硅谷銀行崩潰後抵押貸款利率的下降，Redfin的抵押貸款公司在2023年3月10日星期五鎖定了更多貸款的利率，比任何其他日子都要多。因此，至少在舊金山灣區之外，SVB的失敗可能會成為淨積極因素。自從SVB崩潰以來，房屋建築商的股票上漲，這表明投資者尚未擔心溢出對新房銷售市場產生負面影響。
The kind of disruptive impact on the economy that people are worried about now would mean a lot of industries falling apart simultaneously, creating an avalanche effect that takes down employment, consumption, investment and overall economic activity. It’s tough for that to happen when the economy started out in a position of strength. Now the housing market might act as a stabilizing force rather than becoming part of the problem.
現在人們擔心的對經濟的破壞性影響將意味著許多行業同時崩潰，形成雪崩效應，導致就業、消費、投資和整體經濟活動下降。當經濟處於強勁地位時，這很難發生。現在，房地產市場可能成為穩定力量，而不是成為問題的一部分。
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